When are LEGO sets the cheapest? If you wait only for Black Friday, you might miss out on exactly the Deals that matter most. Based on my experience monitoring retailer prices daily at Brick-Tracker, I’ve learned that the market is no longer limited to just one big bargain day. Coupons, promotional weeks, inventory clear-outs, and automatic price adjustments by stores provide attractive buying opportunities all year round.
The most important rule, therefore, is this: It’s not the date that matters, but the Price History of that specific set. A 40 percent discount can be great—or just average, if the same set was available for less a few weeks ago.
When Should You Buy LEGO? The Short Answer
The best time to buy a LEGO set is when its current total price is attractive compared to its past Price History. This could be on Black Friday, a week before, in the spring, or in the middle of a regular retailer promotion. There isn’t a specific week that’s the cheapest for all sets every year.
For me, therefore, the Brick-Tracker Price Comparison featuring the latest top deals is more important than any promotional calendar. Using the Brick-Tracker app and web app, you can keep an eye on sets that interest you and set Price Alerts.
Why Black Friday Isn’t Necessarily the Best Day to Buy LEGO
Black Friday has one major advantage: Many sellers offer discounts at the same time, and certain items can reach truly low prices. However, all this attention also has a downside. Buyers often compare only the crossed-out MSRP with the sale price, rather than with prices from previous weeks.
For years, I’ve noticed that attractive Deals can pop up right before Black Friday. The week leading up to it can be particularly exciting: sellers test prices, respond to competitors’ offers, or combine already discounted items with coupon codes. This is based on my ongoing observations—it’s not a universal statistical rule that applies to every product category and every year.
The same applies in reverse: If you always shop before Black Friday, you might miss out on an even better price on the actual day of the sale. The key factor is always how prices actually change.
Why it feels like there’s a new Black Friday every six weeks
Many large sellers continuously adjust their selling prices. If one store responds to a competitor’s price, the next seller may follow suit. In addition, there are limited-time discount codes, bulk-purchase promotions, clearance items, and campaigns that sellers use to boost their sales.
This leads to repeated waves of discounts. From my practical experience, it seems like there are new, interesting promotional periods about every six weeks. This isn’t a measured, fixed market frequency, but rather an observation based on experience: If you check prices regularly, you don’t have to wait eleven months for a single Friday.
However, a particularly low price can only last for a short time. Sometimes a deal is adjusted within a few hours, or a coupon is deactivated. That’s exactly why LEGO Live Deals are helpful: they show you current deals without you having to check every store yourself.
The Most Important Shopping Seasons in the LEGO Year
1. Regular retailer promotions—often underestimated
Sales at Smyths, Müller, Rossmann, Kaufland, Alza, Alternate, Proshop, or other sellers aren’t necessarily any worse than major shopping events. It gets especially exciting when you can combine already discounted prices with a valid coupon. Always check the terms and conditions, shipping costs, and actual availability.
2. The weeks leading up to Black Friday
You should definitely not ignore this phase. If you’re waiting for a specific set, you should set your target price in advance and not wait until Black Friday morning to start your research. Good Deals can pop up early and disappear again.
3. Black Friday and Cyber Monday
Both sale events can feature great individual deals. However, high percentage discounts alone aren’t a sign of quality. Some sets actually become particularly affordable, while others remain above their previous best price despite the “Sale” banner. Therefore, always compare the total price and the Price History.
4. After Christmas and during inventory clear-outs
If sellers want to free up warehouse space, individual sets may be marked down significantly. This does not necessarily apply to the entire product line. For popular or discontinued models, however, availability may already be limited.
5. EOL Phase – Opportunities and Risks
For sets that are expected to be discontinued, timing is particularly important. On the one hand, sellers can offer discounts on remaining stock. On the other hand, sought-after sets may become more expensive even before they are actually discontinued. The Brick-Tracker market analysis allows you to track how sets from different EOL years are performing. EOL years may be projections and should not be interpreted as guaranteed discontinuation dates.
What counts as a really good LEGO discount?
Personally, when I’m shopping with a specific goal in mind, I often look for discounts of 35 to 38 percent off the MSRP. For me, that’s an interesting initial threshold, especially if I’ve been keeping an eye on a set for a while or might want to stock up on it as an Investment. However, it’s not a universal seal of approval.
Here’s an example: A set with a MSRP of 100 euros costs 65 euros with a 35 percent discount. If the historical best price was 55 euros, this supposedly great deal isn’t particularly attractive. If, on the other hand, the set has cost at least 85 euros for months, 65 euros can definitely be an enticing price.
Even the percentage discount can be misleading: With a high MSRP, a 30 percent savings looks spectacular, even though comparable sets are consistently sold at significantly lower prices. So if you really want to save money, you should consider the MSRP, the current total price, the historical best price, and availability all together.
Here’s how to use Brick-Tracker to find the right time to buy
- Select a set: Use the Brick-Tracker to find the model you want and open its Price Comparison.
- Check Price History: Compare the current price with prices from previous weeks and months, rather than just focusing on the discount off the MSRP.
- Compare the total price: Include shipping costs and only apply coupons that are actually valid.
- Set your desired price: Use a Price Alert so you don’t have to check every day yourself.
- Keep an eye on Live Deals: Live Deals and Top Deals help you spot new waves of promotions.
- EOL items are rated separately: For retiring sets, market analysis helps categorize historical price movements by subject area and EOL year.
Important: A Price Alert won’t turn a bad deal into a good one. It simply helps you make sure you don’t miss your predefined target price.
Price Comparison and Investment are not the same thing
People who buy a set for themselves or as a gift usually just want to pay as little as possible. Those who view LEGO as an Investment must also factor in storage time, selling price, fees, shipping materials, labor costs, potential damage, and tax issues.
A low purchase price improves your starting position, but it does not guarantee that the value will increase later on. Especially in popular theme lines, there are sets that remain well below their original MSRP long after their EOL. That’s why it’s worth looking not only at the top-performing models but also at stagnating or underperforming ones in your market analysis.
If you’d like to dive deeper, the Brick-Tracker Investment Tool offers additional ways to organize your own holdings and purchases.
Common Mistakes When Buying LEGO Bargains
- Focusing only on the discount from the MSRP: A historical Price Comparison is missing.
- Waiting for just one day to shop: A good deal might already be gone by then.
- Shipping and coupons not included: The advertised item price is not always the actual final price.
- Treat every EOL set as an investment: The fact that a product is being phased out does not, in and of itself, create reliable demand.
- Buying out of fear of missing out: A deal only makes sense if you actually want the set or if the price is right.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Best Time to Buy LEGO
Is LEGO always the cheapest on Black Friday?
No. Some sets may reach their best price at that time, while others were cheaper before or will be cheaper later. Compare the Price History of the specific model.
How much of a discount on LEGO is good?
As a personal guideline, I often use 35 to 38 percent below the MSRP. The key factor, however, is whether the price is also attractive compared to the historical market price.
Should you buy LEGO before it reaches EOL?
If you want to be sure to get a specific model, it may make sense to buy it at an attractive price before it is discontinued. Anyone speculating on a future increase in value should carefully evaluate demand, purchase price, and risks separately.
How do I find the best prices on LEGO?
Through the Brick-Tracker Price Comparison, historical Price History, and a Price Alert. Current Deals change constantly.
When will there be new LEGO Deals?
Retail promotions occur throughout the year. Based on my market observations, interesting waves of discounts occur regularly; however, there is no fixed six-week cycle.
My takeaway: Buy at the right price, not on the right date
Black Friday can be worth it. But it’s by no means the only opportunity to buy LEGO at a good price. If you keep an eye on prices, take past best prices into account, and don’t get swept up by big discount banners, you’ll be in a much better position to make informed decisions.
My tip: Create a Wishlist, set your target price, and use the Brick-Tracker app with Price Alerts. That way, you can jump on a deal when it’s the right fit for you—whether it’s Black Friday or just a regular Tuesday.